Corn dn 12, beans up 3, wheat dn 11 today.

The corn market was hit hard today with lower wheat prices and good rains over the extended weekend in the Western Corn Belt.  The corn market is fearing a "HUGE" acreage forecast later this week by the USDA at their annual Ag Forum, and that coupled with much needed moisture in Nebraska and Iowa over the weekend contributed to lower prices today.  The river basis market was also a touch weaker today but processor bids remain firm for corn.  Weekly export inspections came in today at 29 mbu vs 27.5 last year.  Market year to date corn export inspections are running par to last year, with the USDA still projecting at 10% decrease in the final export figure.  Most traders are looking for the Ag Outlook Forum to project a near double carryout with lots of acres and a trend line yield this year, of course everyone starts out with high production hopes this time of year. 

Soybeans were independently stronger today amid the corn and wheat collapse.  Soybeans have dug in their feet trying to maintain acres this coming year with the new crop ratio to corn of 2.23 vs almost 2.0 a couple of months ago.  Weekly soybean export inspections of 38.5 mbu vs 35.7 ly and year to date export inspections are down 25% from last year with the USDA forecast of a 15% reduction.  Many believe if the midwest continues to stay a little on the dry side heading into spring, that soybean acres will be lost to corn if early planting is possible for corn.

Scott Meyer    

The corn board was not happy (closing down 6 cents) about the continued flow of news out of the Eurozone on management of the sovereign debt issues,  specifically around the situation in Greece.  The greek tragedy seems to have more turns than a mountain highway.  Our markets lack the ability to get comfortable with the outcome that sure as I'm writting this and your reading this,  is heading straight at us. 

Fundamentally,  we have South American weather that is bearish in Argentina,  but bullish in Brazil.  Those moisture patterns and rain accumulations will be important for another month as the experts work to forecast the available bushels from those production zones.

In the soy world we have the Chinese trade delegation working around the US with a happy pen,  signing "deals" to take US beans. (closing up 6 cents) Reality is that the "deals" are just symbolic documents that say if they like the price and they need them,  they sure might buy them from us,  which is the situation with China already.   Historically,  a Chinese Trade delegation will always have a deal in their pocket,  so the trade is expecting an anouncement or two from USDA about beans going to China. 

There has been a story in the news and well reported on the internet of a ship that demolished a large export loading facility in the Argentanian port of Santos.  While this is a real problem, and will impact the availability of beans in that port for the forseable future,  realistically, that is a basis play.  It does not change the S & D,  but rather forces some business to move around while the repairs are underway.  I do think it will help the export basis in the US as some business is likely to load here,  rather then there.  But,  they will have those beans for sale at some time in the future when the facility is operational.

All in all,  we continue to see the US markets show basis volatility as the amount of grain in the commercial grain company's hands is limited,  and as demand surfaces,  it will be hard to outguess what it will take to fill the order.

Have a great evening.

Remember to call your Elburn Coop merchant for all your grain marketing needs!

Howard A. Laube

Corn dn 6 cents, Beans up 3, Wheat dn 7 today.

Corn has put in a see-saw price performance this week, up 7 yesterday and down 6 today.  Traders have also brought up concerns with northwestern dryness in the US corn belt with excessive wetness noted in the far eastern belt.  On Feb 24th, USDA economists will project new crop supply and demand possibilities in the Ag Forum.  Here are some rough estimates that the USDA could use for the up coming corn S&D

Planted            94.8            94.8            94.8

Harvested        87.2            87.2            87.2

Yield                164            155             147

Production        14300        13500        12800

Carryin                800            800            800

Total Stocks    15,100          14,300        13,600

Total Use        13,500            13,500        13,500

Carryout         1,600            800                100

 Soybeans traded higher today after follow through technical buying from yesterday's rally.  It seems as though some still aren't ready to give up on crop loss in SA, where many forecasts show really good rains throughout the driest regions in the next couple of days.  Current new crop corn soybean ratio stands at 2.2

Scott Meyer

Corn dn 5

Beans up 1

wheat dn 19

A rough close to the week for the corn and wheat market.  We started the day out on a strong note with the announcement of 240,000 mmt of corn sales to Egypt, but momentum quickly faded.  Outside market were negative today with a stronger $, and weaker crude, gold, and stock markets.  An interesting note out of China today, an official commented that he believed GMO corn will likely be approved for commercial planting in 2013, this should help China's yield considerably.

Soybeans held their ground today after an announcement of 120,000 mmt of beans to China.  Heavy rains in Argentina recently will certainly benefit double-crop beans there, and many believe the 48 mmt production number put out by the USDA yesterday will be the smallest figure we see from the USDA and the crop can only "grow" in the future.

Scott Meyer